The start of every new year is a great time for myself and the X-Blog because the Royal Rumble is my odds-on favorite PPV of the year.
I did this blog last year before the Royal Rumble and gave Alberto Del Rio a 10% chance of winning it. Not bad. But considering I gave Cena a 30% chance, Triple H a 20% chance and CM Punk a 15% chance, I'm counting that as a predictive failure.
The best and worst part about the Royal Rumble is that it is so unpredictable. There are too many contenders in the match alone. Sure, it's easy to predict that Jimmy Uso won't win the damn thing. But can you ever really count out John Cena? Or Randy Orton? Chris Jericho? Or even The Miz? It's not an easy match to predict, especially with the returnees who come about each year. But that doesn't stop us wrestling fans from trying (and failing) every year.
With abject failure close in mind, here are my official odds for the 2012 Royal Rumble:
RAW Main-Eventers
Let's just be honest here. The odds are clearly in the favor of the wrestlers residing in this category. Odds are that a main-eventer will win the Royal Rumble. (Even if a mid-carder does win, he won't be a mid-carder any longer.) Odds are that the winner will come from RAW. RAW is the A show, and even if a Smackdown winner does pull it out, he'd be featured more on RAW than Smackdown anyway.
John Cena - The Safe Bet: SUPERFACE? Check! Main-Eventer? Check! Previous Royal Rumble winner? Check! SUPERFACE? Did I already ask that? Well check it again! You can't go wrong picking John Cena to be the winner of the Royal Rumble. Hell, he wins everything else. But this year, I think there's one significant little piece of the puzzle that may give Cena an edge: the heel turn. WWE has been hinting at this for weeks, and after Cena's adorable angry face book-ended this RAW week, I think he's starting to embrace the hate. I can't see Cena losing to Kane before the Royal Rumble because that would take a lot of the momentum away from him, something WWE is not likely to do. But imagine if Cena destroys Kane and then enters the Royal Rumble still sporting the anger and goes crazy eliminating everyone in sight, including hometown boy, Randy Orton. As Cena celebrates in the ring, do you really think it'll be to a chorus of cheers? No. He'd be booed out of the building. For maybe the first time ever, someone could win the Rumble match and turn heel at the same time. If this scenario happens, it's the only way I'll cheer for a Cena victory.
Odds of Winning: 15%. Half of what I gave him last year. While the above scenario would be awesome, it probably won't happen.
CM Punk - The Fallen Champion: This scenario only works if CM Punk loses his WWE Championship to Dolph Ziggler earlier in the day. I doubt that will happen, but it's always a possibility. And I'm not against that possibility at all. I would love for Ziggler to become WWE Champion. He's worked hard for it. I would love it even more if Punk lost the WWE Title, turned around and won the Royal Rumble. How awesome would that be? Come on. That would set up a good two month rivalry for two of the best in-ring performers in WWE, as well as continue the anti-authority storyline between Punk and John Laurinaitis that has become more and more interesting as John Laurinaitis has gotten better on the mic. He could use some work on his facial expressions, but in time, people, in time. I don't know exactly how this would work with the 'rematch clause' every WWE Champion seems to have these days, but WWE could always find a way around that... especially since they have a lawyer on the roster now.
Odds of Winning: 10%. I don't forsee Punk losing the title before Wrestlemania. However, if he does and if he enters the Royal Rumble, there's no way he's not winning it.
Chris Jericho - The Doomsayer: The Royal Rumble will be the end of the world as we know it. If Jericho's promise and this oddly awesome storyline doesn't live up to the hype and to Jericho's impossible standards, it sure as hell will be the end of the world. The long con is a hard con to pull off. It requires subtlety and genius - two things Jericho doesn't lack for. WWE could easily have just had Jericho to return at the Royal Rumble and do whatever it is that he has planned en route to winning the match, but instead they brought him back weeks before. I don't know if this was necessarily to make him an odds-on favorite to win the Royal Rumble, but to do something during the match that would change everything. My prediction for Chris Jericho is not that he leaves the Royal Rumble as the number one contender, but that he leaves as the number 20 contender. As in 20-0. That's right, I'm predicting Chris Jericho vs Undertaker at Wrestlemania. Silly little thing like a Royal Rumble match almost pales in comparison, huh?
Odds of Winning: 10%. There's always a chance I'm wrong, but even then, I think I'll get over it.
The Miz - The Must-See Loser: So far, Miz is the only wrestler guaranteed to enter at a certain position in the Royal Rumble and also the only wrestler guaranteed to lose. Or is he? Number one is not a completely unheralded spot in the Royal Rumble match. It could be that a third #1 is set to win the whole shebang. The Miz has been held back for no obvious reason as of late and I have to think it's because something big is in the works for him. Something big like winning the Royal Rumble. It's not impossible, however implausible it may be. In any case, I'm not putting much stock into it. There are too many other options on the table for Miz to come from #1 to the eventual winner. But odder things have happened.
Odds of Winning: 3.45%. It's 100% divided by 29. Hey, I rounded up!
Kane - The Eliminator: There's no way Kane doesn't enter the Royal Rumble this year. He's riding a record streak of eleven straight appearances and there's no reason not to make it twelve. Plus, he could overtake HBK's overall elimination record this year. But here's the potential problem with that. John Cena has to win the match versus Kane earlier in the night. And Cena has to do it convincingly, as he embraces his hate. So that means he has to basically destroy Kane, right? Correct. But Kane is in full-on 'beast mode' right now. So what if after the Cena vs Kane match - where Cena tosses Kane into oncoming traffic or something - he miraculously reappears in the Royal Rumble no worse for wear. Not necessarily to win the Rumble, but just to show Cena that it'll take more than that to beat him.
Odds of Winning: .55%. (Just trying to get the number back in order.) Come on, Kane isn't winning the Royal Rumble. He never does. He's just the guy WWE uses to clear the ring when need be. The above scenario really only gives more credence to John Cena winning anyway.
Triple H - The Corporate Plant: There's nothing hinting that Triple H will enter the Royal Rumble match. But there's also nothing saying that he won't. I don't think Triple H's time in the ring is done for just yet. I doubt it ever will be, so he's always a threat to enter a match like the Royal Rumble, just like Vince McMahon was. After all, if he decides he wants in, who's going to stop him?
Odds of Winning: 6%. Again, if he wants to win, who's gonna protest?
Smackdown Main-Eventers
I know I shat all over the Smackdown wrestlers earlier by saying that the winner will most likely come from RAW. That still remains true, in my opinion, but Smackdown still has some very viable options, including my personal odds-on favorite. You might be surprised to find out who it is.
Randy Orton - The Hometown Hero: Has anyone ever won the Royal Rumble in their hometown? That requires research that I am in no mood to do, so for the sake of sanity, let's just puts the odds clearly against it. If you want to hear one of the loudest ovations ever for a Royal Rumble winner, this is it. If Randy Orton wins the match in his hometown, he might receive a pop bigger than CM Punk's in Chicago at Money in the Bank. Plus, Orton's checklist is just the same as Cena's. He's a SUPERFACE, he's a main-eventer, he's a former winner, and he's a SUPERFACE. Albeit, now that I think about it, being a previous winner might be a negative. When was the last time a previous winner won a Royal Rumble? That's some research that should be simple to accomplish. Steve Austin in 2001. His record 3rd win. 11 year ago. Not since then has anyone ever won the Royal Rumble who had won it previously. This doesn't take any odds away from Orton, but it doesn't add any either.
Odds of Winning: 15%. Call it the SUPERFACE bump. He's almost as a safe a bet to win as Cena is. But if history is any indication, WWE doesn't like to have hometown boys win at PPVs. Just ask Bret Hart.
Sheamus - The Great White Hope: Last year at this time, King Sheamus was 'on a roll' which, if you follow this blog, means he was losing almost all of his matches, but still being hyped as a threat to win by the announcers. This year is an entirely different story. He really is on a roll. Sheamus is tearing it up on Smackdown and looks damn near unstoppable. And he's doing it all as a babyface now. Hell, he's basically a SUPERFACE at this juncture. We all know what that means...
Odds of Winning: 20%. Yes, Sheamus is my odds-on favorite to win. He's a SUPERFACE, a main-eventer and he's never won it before. No time like the present.
Daniel Bryan - The Giant Killer: If the giant in question are the odds set against him, then he's been slaying giants since he arrived in WWE. I figured D. Bryan would linger around the US/IC championships his entire career in WWE, taking a detour only for some Tag Team gold. I never would have thought he'd be a World Champion and definitely not this soon. But congrats to him. He deserves it. Unfortunately, I can't see Daniel Bryan holding that World Title until Wrestlemania. So, if he loses it earlier in the night, I expect him to participate int he Royal Rumble. Of course, that means he'd have been taken out by the giants in the World Title match, and prime meat for the giants in the Royal Rumble. That doesn't do him any good as far as his odds go.
Odds of Winning: 1%. He won Money in the Bank, so I guess anything it possible. Albeit, I doubt he'll lose the World Title match. It's a cage match, which gives him plenty of opportunity to sneak out a victory.
Big Show - The Big Show: Big Show's name suits him so well. He's a BIG man and as far as WWE is concerned, it's all just for show. Big Show has never won the Royal Rumble, and I doubt he ever will. His odds deplete every year he gets older. The closest he ever came was in 2004, where he lasted until the final two against Chris Benoit, but was only used to make Benoit's victory even more improbable after entering at #1.
Odds of Winning: 0%. He won't win the World Title at Royal Rumble and he won't win the Royal Rumble match either.
Mark Henry - The BIG Threat: I've had some fun at Mark Henry's expense over the years. I've made an issue of WWE always pushing Mark Henry as this HUGE threat to win the Royal Rumble every year, only for him come up short. Last year, I even gave him -1% chance to win. Consider my foot squarely in my mouth. While he didn't win the Royal Rumble last year, he had a career year overall. He was World Champion. He beat Randy Orton clean... twice. He established himself as a real threat. Kudos, Mark. Kudos. However, he's still not going to win this year's Royal Rumble. Or the World Title. At least not right now.
Odds of Winning: 0%. It's more than I gave him last year...
RAW Mid-Carders
Mid-carders don't generally do well in Royal Rumble matches. But the Royal Rumble is one definitive way to make that jump from mid-card to main-event. It's been done before. (Rey Mysterio, Chris Benoit, Alberto Del Rio)
Dolph Ziggler - The Show-off: Ziggler has adopted the nickname 'The Show-Off' for his persona, but for this blog, I'm nicknaming him 'The Show-Off' because WWE likes to show Ziggler off a lot. In multiple PPVs over the past months, Dolph has competed in two matches. I think WWE loves this guy, and why wouldn't they? I akin this to a baseball organization who grooms a young player from the minor leagues, through the developmental farms, and finally gets a chance to show-off all their hard work in the majors. Dolph has come a long way from his days as 'caddy' Nick Nemeth and the Spirit Squad. He's worked his way from the bottom to the top. There's no way WWE doesn't show him off in both the WWE Championship match and later on in the Royal Rumble, should he lose the championship match. And let's face it, he's going to lose the championship match.
Odds of Winning: 5%. Just imagine the CM Punk scenario above, just vice-versa. Still just as awesome.
R-Truth - Little Jimmy's Pick: The difference a year makes, huh? Last year in the lead-up to the Royal Rumble, R-Truth was losing multiple televised matches to Alberto Del Rio, who became the eventual winner. In fact, R-Truth had the shortest time in the Royal Rumble match last year, clocking in at only 30 seconds. This year, R-Truth is winning matches en route to the Royal Rumble and is clearly being pushed as a top babyface in the company. I'm pretty certain he'll be in the match longer than 30 seconds this year. While this won't necessarily translate to a win, he's gotta be enjoying the turnaround. I am.
Odds of Winning: 1%. Little Jimmy = Little kids. Little kids are starting to love R-Truth's new character. Little kids run WWE. Simple.
Jack Swagger - The Oversight: Jack Swagger's World Title reign wasn't really that bad. He suffered from a lack of suitable challengers. His two real opponents during his title reign was Rey Mysterio, who is undersized and Big Show, who is oversized. Swagger comes from an amateur background, where he is used to facing opponents in his weight class. Had he competed against challengers like CM Punk or Randy Orton, I'm sure Swagger would have excelled. But now he's overlooked in this and pretty much all of his matches because of his failed reign as champion. I wouldn't overlook Swagger too much, though. He's not done as champion.
Odds of Winning: 2%. I hope I didn't give the impression that he's a favorite to win. Not at all. Albeit, it would be fun to see what could happen if Swagger won the Royal Rumble and Ziggler won the WWE Championship...
Kofi Kingston - The Hard Luck Loser: For a guys as talented and athletically gifted as Kofi Kingston is, he's sure had a hard time breaking out of this category. I think the reason why is because he's too much of a babyface. He's the guy everyone loves to see jump and fly around the ring. But here's what some people don't know - Kingston is an amazing heel. He's so good at being a heel, he had some people, including myself, wondering if he's be able to make it in WWE as a babyface. If WWE were smart, they'd turn Kingston heel as soon as possible and there's no better time to do it than right now, since he'd be legitimately frustrated after the bullshit he's had to endure at his former tag team partner's expense.
Odds of Winning: 0%. With the 'roll' he's on, I wouldn't be surprised if he clocked in with the shortest time this year.
Zack Ryder - Mr. Popularity: I question why WWE would take Ryder off of television right before they could feature him in a match as crucial as the Royal Rumble. Not that he'd be any threat to win, but his popularity is on the rise and he could have had a segment of the Royal Rumble where he was dominant, even if it just leads to him being eliminated. Bad move, WWE.
Odds of Winning: 0%. For obvious reasons.
Smackdown Mid-Carders
There aren't many mid-carders on Smackdown that I consider to be even somewhat a contender to win the Royal Rumble, which adds more credence to my assertion that the winner will be from RAW. And the two that are contenders, are primed to jump into the main-event at any given time.
Cody Rhodes - The Dark Horse: It's easy to count Cody Rhodes out of the Royal Rumble because he's the Intercontinental Champion and current champions don't win Royal Rumble matches. But here's the thing, Cody Rhodes will be a main-eventer someday. He's already ready for it right now. And all he needs to get there is a little push. Like maybe the Royal Rumble push? It's a longshot, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility.
Odds of Winning: 3%. The Rhodes/Orton rivalry was teased a bit earlier this year. If Orton wins Elimination Chamber as I expect him to, this could always be in the cards for Wrestlemania. Of course, it could happen even without the Royal Rumble.
Wade Barrett - The Target: You never want to enter a Royal Rumble match with a target on your back. It never tends to work out for you so well. Also, you never want your predator to be a SUPERFACE. They tend to make a beeline for you. Wade Barrett is on the uprise and I expect WWE to feature heavily come Wrestlemania in some way or another. I mean, his Wrestlemania can't be any worse than it was last year - losing in 45 seconds. One way to ensure an excellent Wrestlemania experience is to win the Royal Rumble.
Odds of Winning: 1%. Only because he's never won it and I expect Orton to enter Wrestlemania as World Champion. There is still a lot of ground to cover in their rivalry.
Surprise Entrants
It's become more of a guessing game than anything else. You know there will be at least one surprise entrant every year, and the rumors run rampant with names big and small.
The Undertaker - Deadman Walking: Can Taker even walk? He's so fragile these days that I think it's a tenable question. Now, Undertaker will return. That's not even a debate. It's just a question of when. I don't know if Undertaker has the durability to compete in a Royal Rumble, let alone if WWE trusts his health in the right with multiple other wrestlers. I suppose he could enter at #30, when there's just a couple guys left in the ring, where they'd be given specific orders to be safe. But what fun would that be?
Odds of Returning: 20%. It's gotta happen at sometime.
Odds of Winning: 5%. He's past his time as champion and/or contender. No need for it.
Brock Lesnar - The Next Big Return: Look, for anyone rolling their eyes at this name, as I am apt to do myself, Brock Lesnar will return to WWE. I doubt it'll be right now, but it will happen. He left UFC clouded in embarassment and shame. Relevancy is something he's not looking for right now. Solitude is. I think Brock would want to stay out of the public spotlight for the time being to allow his name to die out a little bit. I have no doubt that Vince has been in contact with him and is pushing for a return, but I don't think Brock is mentally in any shape for it.
Odds of Returning: 0%. For now.
Odds of Winning: 100%. However, if Lesnar does return, he has to win.
Christian - Edge-light: Another returnee who is all but set to return at anytime. There were rumors that Christian wasn't as hurt as he was advertised to be. I don't have any proof of that, but it's good news to me. When Christian does return, he'll have to work his way from heel to babyface in a short period of time since he's the favorite to induct Edge into the Hall of Fame. I know they allow a bit of kayfabe-breaking in the HOF Induction Ceremony, but a heel can't induct the marquee entrant. That would be a little too much. It sucks because WWE takes Christian much more seriously as a heel. I do too.
Odds of Returning: 50%. It'll happen.
Odds of Winning: 0%. This won't.
Rey Mysterio - The Underdog: There has been radio silence on Mysterio since he left. I've read no updates. No rumors. Nothing. Just his appearance at the Slammy Awards, which I didn't even see. I don't even remember the timetable of his injury. But given that the wrestler who 'injured' him most likely won't be in the match, I doubt Mysterio will either.
Odds of Returning: 10%. You never know.
Odds of Winning: 0%. But this, I know.
Alberto Del Rio - The Incumbent: Again, I can't remember if the timetable for Del Rio's injury has him missing the Royal Rumble altogether. But since I've heard no rumors about Del Rio participating, I have to imagine he won't be. He'll still have the sweet memories from last year.
Odds of Returning: 1%. Eh...
Odds of Winning: 1%. Ditto.
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